Productivity Commission releases 2026 disability services chapter with updated NDIS, funding and workforce data

What the report is

The Productivity Commission’s Report on Government Services 2026 — Part F, Section 15 (released 29 January 2026) is a descriptive performance chapter that reports on Australian, state and territory government assistance to people with disability and their carers. It consolidates indicator results and downloadable data tables and datasets that cover the NDIS, specialist disability services provided outside the NDIS, mainstream service use by people with disability, workforce measures and carer statistics.

What the report shows (key, Stage 1‑relevant findings)

• Disability prevalence (ABS 2022): an estimated 5.5 million people (21.4% of the population) had disability; 7.9% had a profound or severe core activity limitation. The report cites ABS prevalence results for 2022 and comparisons to earlier collections.
• NDIS scale and composition: at 30 June 2025 there were 739,414 active NDIS participants with approved plans; autism (39.9%) and intellectual disability (14.6%) were the most common primary disability types among participants.
• Funding and supports: total government expenditure on disability services in 2024–25 was reported as $51.1 billion (up 5.5% on 2023–24). Governments contributed $46.1 billion to the NDIS in 2024–25, and the NDIS committed $61.0 billion in participant supports during 2024–25 (an 11.8% increase in committed supports on the previous year). At 30 June 2025, $45.9 billion of the 2024–25 committed supports had been paid.
• Complaints and incidents: the NDIS Quality and Safeguards Commission (NQSC) reported 33,789 complaints in 2024–25, and large volumes of reported incidents — including 2,305,071 notified incidents of unauthorised use of restrictive practices and 34,104 other reportable incidents (most frequently alleged abuse and neglect and serious injury).
• Workforce indicators: since the NDIS Worker Screening Check began, 1.1 million applications have been submitted; clearances are valid for five years. The NDIS Commission reported 10,545 behaviour support practitioners as suitable to deliver behaviour support services in its Q4 2024–25 report. The NDS 2025 Workforce Census (to Dec 2024) finds the disability workforce is predominantly female (63%), largely aged 25–44 (49%), and that casual workers made up 40% of the workforce with rising casual turnover.
• Specialist services and Basic Community Care (BCC): as services transitioned to the NDIS, the range and number of state specialist disability services declined. Where BCC data are available (Victoria, Queensland, Tasmania), combined recipients numbered 72,240 in 2024–25; however the report cautions that BCC data quality varies between jurisdictions.

Funding, timing and administrative context

The chapter reports historical and 2024–25 financial-year expenditure and administrative activity; it does not itself create funding or regulatory change. It notes the roles of the Australian, state and territory governments and highlights that the Australian Government funds NDIA operations and the NQSC. Operating expenses reported for the NDIA and the NQSC in 2024–25 were $2.5 billion and $197.3 million respectively.

What the report does not change

This publication is a performance and data report. It does not alter NDIS eligibility, provider registration rules, commissioning arrangements or funding entitlements. Any policy or operational changes would need to be confirmed in separate government or agency instruments.

What this could mean in practice

• Providers and planners can use the updated expenditure and participant data to review demand assumptions and budget forecasts. The rise in committed supports and large incident volumes may prompt service-level reviews of safeguarding, reporting and training.
• Workforce data underline ongoing reliance on casual labour and turnover pressures; these findings are relevant to recruitment, rostering and retention strategies.
• Gaps and quality variation in BCC data across jurisdictions suggest caution when comparing service volumes or drawing jurisdictional performance conclusions from BCC figures alone.

What to watch next

• Further releases of jurisdictional data tables and the downloadable CSV/Excel files the report provides for detailed breakdowns and caveats. The Outcomes Framework reporting under Australia’s Disability Strategy is due to be reported annually and may provide complementary performance measures.
• Any agency-level responses or policy proposals from the NDIA, the NQSC or state governments that reference the report’s findings.

Bottom line

The RoGS 2026 disability chapter updates a wide set of descriptive indicators and datasets covering the NDIS, specialist services, expenditure, incidents and workforce measures for 2024–25 and earlier reference periods. It is a resource for evidence-based planning and monitoring but does not itself change policy or funding arrangements. Users should consult the published data tables and source caveats when drawing operational conclusions.